Friday, November 24, 2023

SEDU - "At Least Mortgage Loans Are Growing In Volume"... 

From a recent commenter: "At least mortgages are growing in volume." 

Anonymous November 20, 2023 at 7:41 PM

Wayne Gretsky, the acclaimed ice hockey player, when asked why he was so successful: "I skate to where the puck will be, not where it has been." 

As we proceed into 2024, after a big jump in mortgage rates in 2023, lets' take a look at where the mortgage loan puck at SECU might be heading. The SECU financial statements report each month on the mortgage loan activity at the Credit Union. "Originations" are the dollar amount of mortgages actually made during the month and "In process" gives you an idea of the dollar amount of mortgage applications being worked on - an indicator of the volume coming in future months (these days it frequently takes 30/45 days to do all the paperwork!): 

SECU Mortgage Originations:

Aug, 2022   - $570 mill.     Aug. 2023  -  $377 mill.  -  down $193  mill. from prior year

Sept. 2022   - $462 mill.    Sept. 2023   - $312 mill.  -  down $150 mill. from prior year

Oct.  2022    - $426 mill.    Oct.  2023   - $274 mill  -   down $152 mill. from prior year

SECU Mortgage Loans in Process:

Aug. 2023     $113

Sept. 2023     $ 96

Oct. 2023       $ 91


✅ Here's the one other mortgage loan indicator to use in your forecast about where the SECU mortgage puck will be next year: Member principal repayments on mortgages in the month of October, 2023 were $145 million. In other words  going forward, SECU  will need "to originate" at least $145+ million in new mortgages - or else the mortgage portfolio will begin to decline.  $91 million (in process) less $145 million (repayments) = ....

... maybe the apple pies will help.