Friday, November 24, 2023

SEDU - "At Least Mortgage Loans Are Growing In Volume"... 

From a recent commenter: "At least mortgages are growing in volume." 

Anonymous November 20, 2023 at 7:41 PM

Wayne Gretsky, the acclaimed ice hockey player, when asked why he was so successful: "I skate to where the puck will be, not where it has been." 

As we proceed into 2024, after a big jump in mortgage rates in 2023, lets' take a look at where the mortgage loan puck at SECU might be heading. The SECU financial statements report each month on the mortgage loan activity at the Credit Union. "Originations" are the dollar amount of mortgages actually made during the month and "In process" gives you an idea of the dollar amount of mortgage applications being worked on - an indicator of the volume coming in future months (these days it frequently takes 30/45 days to do all the paperwork!): 

SECU Mortgage Originations:

Aug, 2022   - $570 mill.     Aug. 2023  -  $377 mill.  -  down $193  mill. from prior year

Sept. 2022   - $462 mill.    Sept. 2023   - $312 mill.  -  down $150 mill. from prior year

Oct.  2022    - $426 mill.    Oct.  2023   - $274 mill  -   down $152 mill. from prior year

SECU Mortgage Loans in Process:

Aug. 2023     $113

Sept. 2023     $ 96

Oct. 2023       $ 91


✅ Here's the one other mortgage loan indicator to use in your forecast about where the SECU mortgage puck will be next year: Member principal repayments on mortgages in the month of October, 2023 were $145 million. In other words  going forward, SECU  will need "to originate" at least $145+ million in new mortgages - or else the mortgage portfolio will begin to decline.  $91 million (in process) less $145 million (repayments) = ....

... maybe the apple pies will help.


  1. If they just dropped rates by 1% over what the average "A" paper borrower can get in the market they would originate every mortgage a member is shopping for. Imagine marketing actually having a useful campaign to promote that rate. Seems like a no brainer considering rates are trending down anyway. Get ahead of the market.

  2. The market was insanely overheated in August 2022. The Fed has since jacked up the interest rates, specifically to cool the market. So this is not particularly surprising, and I'd guess is probably something being experienced by all credit unions?

    To me, the current pressing issue is the fact that employees didn't get a bonus this year, are having benefits scaled back, received a 'raise' WAY below inflation, and have had promotions frozen for 6+ months with no end in sight.

    That's what I'm focused on right now.

    1. Agree. For benefits, how about getting rid of the stupid add-ons that have been introduced and get the basics right. Lower Medical.

    2. I absolutely agree with the comment that there are other pressing issues at the moment that are not receiving any attention whatsoever.

    3. "generous" merit allocation .... be grateful to the unpaid deciders/directors/overlords for approving merit after being told we're all overpaid for the job duties performed (but not understood) ...... by the people saying we're overpaid

      if I never see the word "generous" again it will still be too soon !

    4. Might be better for you to focus on the mortgage loans a little more 'cause they pay for all that stuff you're currently focused on.

      Again, industry standard should not be the goal.

    5. Amen to all of this ^

    6. Would you like a little cheese with that whine?

    7. As a member I am appalled with the sudden “me me me” attitude of the staff. Please focus on the MEMBERS, many of whom have not ever received “merit raises” and certainly have not enjoyed the employment stability that SECU has provided.

    8. The employees are members too. Job security should be a given for any corporation. Corporations FEAR what SECU was. It’s not really a “me” mentality. It’s about protecting the workforce for SECU for years to come. To keep local jobs in our NC communities. That’s not selfish…. That’s where it starts…the way SECU was ran for its employees/membership should be the standard for any company and we weren’t exactly well paid either. It’s something you just have to experience. I’ve worked in corporate America and it’s garbage. Industry standard is garbage and we must protect that from overtaking our philosophy of people helping people. It’s not selfish. It’s about protecting this employee experience that has been well received for the past 80+ years.

    9. I think employees are more upset that we haven’t been helped with our living expenses due to inflation meanwhile the executives, board, and our recently resigned CEO has been looting SECU like it’s their piggy bank. It’s not a me attitude. APCO must be writing comments now to try to flip the narrative.

    10. Since none of it went to "A Paper" savers, what have the eight on "this board" done with a BILLION dollars in "record profits" the past two years?

    11. Good decisions from the board and the executive management team lead to better financials. Which leads to employees being treated better(wages/benefits), and better rates/products. which inturn makes happy employees who only have to worry about giving members the best experience. It all starts at the top. Remember when you could come to work and just help the member in front of you and not worry about the next poor management decision....

  3. I worry about non-facts stated with such certitude. That's been the hallmark of the last 2 years. Shoot, then aim. Hire then have a job for the person. Buy it, then figure it out. Create a Marketing department, then pass H410.

  4. Housing Market's Freeze Got Deeper In October As Sales Hit 13-Year Low

    Slowest pace of home sales since 2010, putting the market on track for its worst year possibly since the early 1990s

  5. Isn't it better to be paid for your job then given "merit" pay and bonuses? that seems to lead to incentive pay, which leads to Wells Fargo type corruption. Get rid of the four board members next year, and Brady, and get on with running a credit union for members. right the pay scale for employees, get rid of all the excessive administration and unnecessary added departments. Focus on all the members, not just a few of the members!