Careful!... or you will definitely get mauled!
Now that you are an expert on "TDR's" [post link] and have an honest understanding of the principal reason SECU's delinquency "dropped $581 million, down 51%!" overnight, lets take one last glance at the remaining, overall delinquency situation at the Credit Union.
Any major TDR adjustment in the hundreds of millions of dollars will make future comparison of delinquency "awkward" at best. Why? Because many loans that were delinquent over the last six months are now "undelinquent", or much less so. The goalposts have moved a bit!
So, what do you do? You increase your focus on the 3+ month (90+ days) delinquency totals, rather than tracking the 60+ day delinquency totals. Why? Because while TDR adjustments make many 30, 60, 90 day delinquent loans "undelinquent"; TDRs generally do not greatly impact the 90+ days delinquent accounts.
A commenter indirectly pointed this out yesterday by noting that according to the SECU's website financial summary [link], 3+ month delinquency had increased from 1.11% in March, 2024 to 1.39% in March, 2025. Note that the increase in 3+moth delinquency to 1.39% is after the large TDR adjustment.
✅ What do those "%s" mean in real dollars? The 3+ month delinquency at SECU has increased from $376 million in March, 2024 to $495 million in March, 2025. That's an increase of +32%. During the same period, outstanding loans increased by only 6%.
😎 The 3+ month delinquency level of $495 million is an excellent "leading indicator" of future SECU loan losses over the next two years.
SECU is making a substantially larger number of bad loan decisions than in the past. The SECU Board should address the problem.
Or should SECU members be expected to just grin and bear it?
