Twain understood human nature!
😎 In two 8/4/2024 posts [link] [link] , there was quite a discussion of the upwardly spiraling loan losses resulting from SECU's "new/new" lending and collection practices - losses are now over $200+ million annually!
Much of the brouhaha broke out in the comments sections when an internal "new/new" advocate chastised member critics for their bad data and poor estimates - they didn't have their "figures" right! Here's one of his self-assured comments:
•Anonymous July 15, 2024 at 6:49 PM
"Charge-offs won't be $250 million in 2024. It's unclear how that
projection was derived. Rising delinquency is mostly a mortgage story.
Losses were high for unsecured, card and auto in 1Q, but 30-60, and 60+
delinquency dropped significantly in 1Q and that continues, and lower
charge off dollars will follow."
😎 Thought we might check that statement out against the federal regulatory reports. Below are the actual SECU delinquency reports for 3/31/2024 and for the just ended quarter, 6/30/2024.
Kinda hard to read, but you can enlarge them. You want to focus on the categories at the top (30-59 days, 60-89 days, 90-days...etc), then drop down to line #21 (in gray) at the bottom to see the total in each category. Got it?
Now compare the figures in each category in the first chart (3/31/2024) to the figures reported in the second chart (6/30/2024)
😎 Most impartial financial analysts focus on the total of loans delinquent greater than 60 days+ (that's the gray column on the right side) as a "leading indicator" of potential future loan losses.
❋ Total SECU delinquency in the 60+ day range is up by $25 million over the last 3 months - to over $725 million! [No, it hasn't "dropped significantly" [see above]!]
❋ The "new/new" arrived at SECU in September, 2021. Here's their track record on 60+ day delinquency: a) 6/30/2021- $292 million, b) 6/30/2022 - $384 million, c) 6/30/2023 $526 million, d) 6/30/2024 - $725 million!
