An anonymouse integrity check!
✅ From a commenter: "I'm offering you a free, and admittedly optional integrity check".
"Recall
that the Callahan analyst, in content you published on this blog,
questioned your comparison set, and suggested that comparing a 50
billion+ CU to all CU's > $500 million [the "peer group" is defined by NCUA - not me!] wasn't very meaningful or
appropriate."
"Here are the 12 month rolling loss rates through 1Q 2025 for the 10 largest CU's ranked by asset size.
1) Navy 2.48%
2) SECU 0.66%
3) PenFed 1.76%
4) SchoolsFirst 1.05%
5) BECU 0.59%
6) Golden 1 0.76%
7) America First 0.99%
8) Alliant 1.04%
9) Mount. America 1.25%
10) Randolph Brooks 0.57%"
"Here are the 12 month rolling loss rates through 1Q 2025 for the 10 largest CU's ranked by asset size.
1) Navy 2.48%
2) SECU 0.66%
3) PenFed 1.76%
4) SchoolsFirst 1.05%
5) BECU 0.59%
6) Golden 1 0.76%
7) America First 0.99%
8) Alliant 1.04%
9) Mount. America 1.25%
10) Randolph Brooks 0.57%"
"* SECU has the third lowest loss rate, and is only 9 basis points higher than RB, who has the lowest loss rate at .57%."
✅ The commenter would like to compare SECU's loan loss and delinquency performance against the top 10 credit unions which is reasonable and that comparison looks good.
😎 The SECU loan analytics folks seem increasing desperate to explain away the lack of performance since 2021 - they claim it was caused by inflation, soaring interest rates, adjustable rate mortgages, a leap year, wrong "peer" group, inaccurate official data, Mike Lord, and those unreliable members!
Of course, we all understand that data can be viewed in many different ways. How does one determine which data is most important? The best answer is to focus on the data which affects SECU members the most. Does the SECU member care about Navy's loss rate or Randolph Brooks'? The answer is "No, not at all" - it doesn't affect the SECU members in any way!
✅ The following info does directly affect SECU members - in a large, hard dollar way:
😎 The SECU charge-off rate for 2021 was .20%, which was $50 million.
The SECU charge-off rate for 2022 was .35%, which was $95 million.
The SECU charge-off rate for 2023 was .62%, which was $197 million.
The SECU charge-off rate for 2024 was .68%, which was $233 million.
❋ Charge offs for first quarter 2025 were $69 million, which if "annualized" (x 4) would mean a projected $276 million in losses for 2025.
✅ And then there is this:
😎 The SECU 60+ day delinquency on the March, 2021 Call Report was $210 million.
The SECU 60+ day delinquency on the March, 2022 Call Report was $216 million.
The SECU 60+ day delinquency on the March, 2023 Call Report was $470 million.
The SECU 60+ day delinquency on the March, 2024 Call Report was $700 million. The SECU 60+ day delinquency on the December, 2024 Call Report was $1.15 billion!
The SECU 60+ day delinquency on the March, 2025 Call Report was $556 million.*
❋ That is an improvement! SECU delinquency levels are now a little over twice as high as in 2021 ($210 million), rather than over three times as high at March, 2024 ($700 million).
✅ The "LA" folks proclaimed the following: "* Delinquency dropped $591 million, down 51% from year-end! "
As a little "integrity check", hope that remarkable 51% drop in delinquency would be explained. How was that accomplished? What new innovative collection techniques were adopted in the last three months? Will equally dramatic improvements occur in the second quarter?
😎 Lets hope an "explanation of integrity" is forthcoming and that the 51% drop is real. Why? First because $1.15 billion is a big number! And, because if 51% drop is not real and you add it back, SECU's delinquency ratio would double...
New math? ... or just "new/new"?