Sunday, January 5, 2025

A Comment On A Comment... Just Making Up The Numbers?

Ahem! A tutorial on accurate statistics.

✅ One concern which we will be looking at shortly is whether or not the SECU Board is receiving complete, balanced data on what is occurring with the SECU lending portfolio... 

😎 Here's an example of the concern: Comment: January 5, 2025 at 8:23 AM. [see post here]

"FYI, your comment about 11 consecutive quarters of charge-offs is false. Reported charge-offs declined from the prior quarter in 3Q 23, 4Q 23, 1Q 24 and 2Q 24. 4 of 5 last quarters have seen a decline."

"Odd to highlight that anyway. One would expect the dollar amount of charge-offs to grow consistently as the loan portfolio grows in size. Growth in charge-offs dollars by itself is not a concern - especially when the loss ratio is dropping."   [Under "New/New" loans are up @37%, while loan losses are up 300% over same period. Hope that's not SECU's definition of "consistency"!]

✅ In case you can't make out the official NCUA #s below, here is the actual charge-off record:   Baseline: Dec, 2021 - .20%; 1) Mar, 2022 - .21%; 2) June, 2022 - .26%; 3) Sept, 2022 - .28%; 4) Dec, 2022 - .35%; 5) Mar, 2023 - .44%; 6) June, 2023 - .47%; 7) Sept, 2023 - .51%; 8) Dec, 2023 - .62%; 9) Mar, 2024 - .69%; 10) June, 2024 - .72%; 11) Sept, 2024 - .76% ... according to NCUA that's 11 quarters in a row.