Sunday, June 30, 2024

Fact Checking The "Industry-Wide Deposit Runoff" Which Is Holding SECU Back...

https://www.point-of-reference.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/bad-data_2-e1677175725593.png 

                  1 + 1 ≠ whatever !

 😎 The "2:13pm/3:16pm commenter" is at it again! [see 6/28 and 6/29 posts and comments for the continuing saga] 

2:13pm/3:16pm commenter: "2) No growth since 21? Growth of asset tough given industry-wide deposit runoff."

😎 As President Reagan remarked: "There you go again!"

😎 Would assume that if that statement were true, other large credit unions would also have suffered from that "industry-wide deposit runoff", right? Assume too that your excuses reasons make perfect sense and that we can trust your analyses - because you are presenting them "in good faith".

So, let's look at that  "industry-wide deposit runoff" which afflicted the 10 largest credit unions by comparing December, 2021 deposits to December, 2023 deposits. [This data is from federal NCUA Call Reports]

 1. Navy -     2021 deposits: $127.8B,      2023 dep: $144.3B  -  + $16.5B
 2. SECU -   2021 dep:  $47.1B,               2023 dep:  $44.5B    -  ( - $2.6B)
 3. Pentagon -   2021 dep:  $23.1B,         2023 dep:  $29.5B     -    +$6.4B
 4. Boeing -   2021 dep:  $26.1B,             2023 dep:  $24.8B    -  ( - $1.3B)**
 5. SchoolsFirst -   2021 dep:  $23.8B,     2023 dep:  $24.0B    -   + $0.2B
 6. Alliant -    2021 dep:  $12.8B,            2023 dep:  $14.4B    -   + $1.6B
 7. Golden1 -   2021 dep:  $16.5B,          2023 dep:   $16.7B    -   + $0.2B
 8. AmericaFirst -   2021 dep:  $15.1B,    2023 dep:  $17.0B    -   + $1.9B
 9. FirstTech -    2021 dep:  $11.4B,         2023 dep:  $15.5B    -   + $4.1B
10. Suncoast  -    2021 dep:  $14.7B,        2023 dep:  $14.5B   -    + $3.5B

Doesn't exactly look like  an "industry-wide deposit runoff", does it? Deposits at Navy were up @13% and 6 out of the 10 increased deposits by 10%+.  SECU looks like "the unicorn" among the top 10 in terms of "negative deposit growth" !

** Well, except for Boeing which may have a real and more accurate explanation for why they're not exactly "blowing the doors off"...

✅ Let's hope that these bogus "statistics and statements" are not the analyses reaching the SECU Board... which would and will mislead them into making expensive mistakes in loan policy.

The Board wouldn't take "that stuff" at face value, would they?


 

11 comments:

  1. why are they letting this happen? i hear about record income all the while they are keeping rates low and losing deposits

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  2. Wouldn't you gain some goodwill, legitimacy, and buy-in if you just admitted the Board, CEO, CFO and CLO made some unintended bad decisions and then move forward to try to correct the errors rather than standing on the deck of the Titanic and shouting "All is well!" as the ship is taking on water?

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  3. This goal is not in our Strategic Plan.

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  4. our execs keep saying that what is happening to us is happening to all the other credit unions.. this seems to prove that's not true. We are in a mess.

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  5. things will never change until they have a change of heart ...

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  6. these new/new folks think they are smarter and wiser then the founders... I beg to differ ... 85 years of growth versus the most profitable year ever gaslighting ...

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  7. Time to sue the board as individuals for malfeasance. make them personally liable for these losses.

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    1. Lest anyone think this comment is off base, consider this....the amount of financial loss and reputation damage SECU has experienced over the last 3 years would make the majority of other credit unions go under and shut its doors. We are fortunate that previous Boards and Administrations built a financial institution that can weather this nonsense.

      Putting out a plea to the current board members up for reelection this Fall: Step down and let someone else take the reigns.

      And for anyone thinking the commenter's on this blog are only a small, vocal minority...you are mistaken. Alot of foks are worried and for good reason.

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    2. Your conclusion isn't off base, but the comment about anyone going under, at least for financial reasons, is perhaps a little far-fetched.

      Consider our capital ratio at points in time:
      3Q 2106: 7.78%
      3Q 2021: 8.21%
      3Q 2023: 10.33%
      May 2024: 10.4% reported,
      May 2024: 9.5% less the $5 billion.

      More recently sufficient capital was built to weather the high losses that were imbedded in the portfolio. We have also traditionally been a lot lower than other CU's on capital ratio, so they weather things just fine.

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  8. 9:47am - Well, as you can see "you know who" ("YKW") just can't stand it. The "just ain't so" on the ridiculous "industry-wide deposit runoff" claim is conveniently overlooked in response. Pretty clear that SECU was the only exceptional "negative growth" outlier among the top 10...and we all know that was caused by non-competitive savings rates.

    Didn't see where the "7:54am commenter" made any mention about the CU "going under"; in fact 7:54 said quite the opposite: "SECU can weather this financial nonsense." I would certainly agree with 7:54 if "this nonsense" doesn't go past October, 2024! SECU members are paying a heavy cost - leadership "nonsense" is always expensive.

    We've learned that "YKW" hates "the light"; and shifts back to the "we're more profitable" ("more capital") argument ,which made SECU look a bit silly at the last Annual Meeting. When the "most profitable year ever" boast was made by a non-profit CU, all credit unions shuddered and the banks laughed - after sending copies to their Congressmen.

    But granted, if the "new/new" RBL/TBP lending fiasco is going to keep churning out -$200+ million losses (and rising rapidly!) each year... yep, you better increase your capital to handle those losses, which SECU didn't "enjoy" in the past!

    'Course don't forget that greater profitability/capital is created only by underpaying SECU savers and overcharging the majority of SECU borrowers... it comes out of the members' pockets. Pretty sure it's not the result of exceptional lending brilliance...



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  9. Poor baby...this attitude is what is killing us on the branch staff. middle finger salute to this fool. Our leaders. Its bad

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