A Black Swan.
The world used to believe all swans were white; and, the axiom "as rare as a black swan" was used by everyone to describe something that didn't exist or couldn't happen.
But things changed @ 1700AD, when the first black swan was discovered in Australia.
In 2007, a wonderful economist (that made you laugh, I hope!), Nassem Taleb adopted the phrase "Black Swan" to describe economic, social, or political events which are beyond the realm of normal expectations. Events so rare and unusual that they are unique, unpredictable, unforeseeable. Our latest Black Swan event in the U.S occurred last Tuesday!
Another example has been the evolution of Local Government FCU into CIVIC FCU on "Independence Day" in June, 2025. That was a bold move [link] which has resulted in a Black Swan scenario for the credit union.
According to the September, 2026 NCUA regulatory report, CIVIC FCU assets have now dropped below $3 billion (down $1 billion+), membership has declined by @100,000, and 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year of annual operational losses, approaching $200 million. Required capital levels have dropped substantially.
There has been a lot of finger pointing, controversy, and perhaps ill-will between CIVIC and SECU over the last 3 years. One would hope that those disagreements and disputes could be set aside and that the two credit unions can quickly find common ground to work together again.
✔ Time to address CIVIC as the black swan it represents for North Carolina; a new, rare opportunity, rather than an albatross.
If not, North Carolina municipal and county employees and their families will lose out.
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